Manchester City are in the extremely rare position of being able to draw only four teams in the Champions League round of 16, due to three English clubs finishing second and thus not eligible opposition for City at this stage of the competition.
That leaves City with just four second-placed opponents they can draw, with Lyon also ineligible having qualified from the same group as Pep Guardiola’s men.
City will draw one of Ajax, Atletico Madrid, Roma and Schalke out of the pot next Monday when the Champions League round of 16 draw takes place in Nyon, Switzerland.
And famed stats expert, @2010MisterChip, has calculated the chances of City facing each of those sides, based on every factor including who other teams can draw.
While the results are close enough that it could be any of the four, the most likely opponent, Atletico Madrid, is not what Blues would have wanted to hear, with Diego Simeone’s team of hardened warriors undoubtedly the toughest prospect.
City have a 28.912% chance of drawing Atleti, with Schalke (27.775%) the next most likely, followed by Roma (23.335%), and finally Dutch giants Ajax (19.978%).
Given the slim percentages, the probabilities do not mean City will get Atletico for sure, but statistically they are the most likely.
Here is the full graph of probabilities for each team left in the Champions League: